Crime Patterns: Comparing the 5th Ward to Minneapolis

“As I’ve indicated in the past, unstable subsystems like that of the 4th and 5th Wards seem to be sensitive to certain systems forces, at least that’s what the data is suggesting.”

By Matt Johnson, The Systems Scientist

Figure 1
Figure 1

In 2015, there were 21,341 crimes committed in the city of Minneapolis. Of those crimes, 2,116 were committed in July, which was the most of any month during the year. In addition, 1,144 crimes were committed in February, which was the least active month for crime throughout the year. And finally, the majority of the crimes in Minneapolis were committed in the second half of the year from July through December.

However, in the 5th Ward of Minneapolis, which is on the north side, there were approximately 3,070 reported crimes. That’s a little more than 14 percent of the total number of crimes committed in Minneapolis during the 2015 year. But as this scientist has stated in past articles, the systems’ patterns can tell us a lot about the behavior of the general system of Minneapolis and the behaviors of the subsystems of Minneapolis; that is, the 1st Ward through the 13th Ward.

Looking at Figure 2, two pieces of information should stick out. First, July was a peak month for crime. There were approximately 315 reported crimes. Second, February was the least active crime month. If we recall our information from Figure 1, the maximum number of crimes occurred in July while the minimum number of crimes occurred in February in the city of Minneapolis. Interesting.

Figure 2
Figure 2

So far, we know that as the city peaked in crime so did the 5th Ward. In addition, as February was the cities least active month in crime, so was February for the 5th Ward. But those aren’t the only two pieces of information that Minneapolis and the 5th Ward have in common. In 2015, the majority of the crimes committed in the 5th Ward happened over the later part of year from July through December.

Is this a coincidence? Probably not. As I’ve indicated in the past, depressed subsystems (unstable systems) like that of the 4th and 5th Wards seem to be sensitive to certain systems forces, at least that’s what the data is suggesting. What are these systems forces? That’s beyond the scope of this article and the data presented in it.

The point of this article was to demonstrate similar systems patterns and information between Minneapolis and the 5th Ward. As was illustrated, they had the same peak month, the same least active month, and the majority of the crimes for both happened during the second half of the year.

One final thought, if you are a regular reader, you are familiar with my articles about the foreclosure rates in the 4th and 5th Wards. You know that the foreclosure patterns of those wards seem to mimic the general foreclosure pattern of Minneapolis, while other wards like the 2nd Ward and 10th Ward did not. Adding crime to the mix, we see another variable in the system that is behaving similarly to the general system. Fascinating, isn’t it? What are we to make of it? And how could this knowledge be useful for the city of Minneapolis and the inhabitants of the 5th Ward?

For more information on this topic, I suggest Economies, Policies, and Systems and The General System of Minneapolis: Foreclosures. Please note, these are just two suggestions. There are many more articles about crime, foreclosures, systems patterns, and Minneapolis in general.

**Remember, there is nothing more American than discourse. You are always welcome to post your comments, thoughts, and questions below. Feedback is always appreciated!

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